By Michael Fickes, Contributing Correspondent
-- As a deep recession looms around the world, there is a
country where a conservative investment community has resisted
speculative office construction, enabling vacancy rates to fall to
historically low levels and rents to continue rising through the third
quarter of 2008.
Where is this magical land? Canada. According to an analysis of the
office markets in six major Canadian cities by Toronto-based Colliers
International in Canada, the Canadian office market will finish 2008
well positioned to withstand the recession.
The Colliers study looked at Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver.
“Generally, Canada’s credit markets have tightened and are probably
similar to those in the U.S.” Ian MacCulloch, vice president, research,
with Colliers International in Canada, told CPN. “But cap rates are lagging those in the U.S. and have only just begun to move up--maybe 50 to 100 basis points.”
Meanwhile, loan to value ratios have spiked. In 2007, lenders were
underwriting debt of 75 percent. That has gone to 60 percent and even
65 percent in primary markets and 50 percent in secondary markets, said
MacCulloch.
“Lenders have also changed their underwriting assumptions,”
MacCulloch said. “Instead of indicating an upside potential, vacancies
mean zero income. Instead of indicating an opportunity for rental
growth, rollovers are taken to mean a probable decline in rent.”
Nevertheless, the Colliers study shows that Canada’s major urban
office markets have performed well through the third quarter of 2008
and seem by and large to be prepared to weather problems that may arise
over the next year or two.
In Vancouver, vacancy rates have fallen throughout the year, from
4.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007 to 4 percent at the end of
the third quarter of 2008. Over the same period, rents have risen from
$24 to $24.50 per square foot. MacCulloch said that a sublet market has
begun to emerge, but no significant projects will get underway until
2012. The 2010 Olympic games are also shoring up the market.
In Edmonton, rents are expected to plateau at the current $32 per
square foot, as a low 3.8 percent vacancy rate as of September of 2008
appears to have stabilized rents.
The office market in Ottawa has fared less well. Vacancy rates over
the past 12 months have risen from 5.6 percent to 6.3 percent. Still,
rents have remained stable at $17.23 per square foot. With new space
coming to market in 2009, vacancy rates will probably rise more. Still,
the Colliers study suggests that the federal government’s need for
Ottawa office space will likely prevent any strong move up in
vacancies.
Montreal’s office market had a solid 2008 as the vacancy rate
topped from 9.1 percent at the end of 2007 to 6.60 percent at the end
of the third quarter. Tight credit has delayed new projects and is
helping to keep rents stable in the low $20 range.
Calgary and Toronto will feel the fallout of the global economic
slowdown, according to the Colliers report. Both markets share
short-term oversupplies, with several million square feet of new office
space scheduled to come on line in 2009 and 2010.
In Calgary, vacancy rates rose from 3.2 percent to 3.5 percent from
the third quarter of 2007 through the third quarter of 2008. Even so,
rents spiked from $40 to $48 per square foot over the period and may
pad the impact of the oversupply on the market. The Toronto office
market saw vacancy rates decline from 5.6 percent to 4.5 percent from
the third quarter of 2007 through the third quarter of this year. Rents
rose from $21.36 to $22.90. Demand will soften, however, as new space
comes to market over the next two years.
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