What Inning Are We In?

At last week's Cityscape Connect conference, speakers hotly debated how far the current recession has progressed, especially as it relates to real estate. The discussion was couched in the form of two metaphors that have long been popular in commercial real estate discussions: baseball game innings and storms (i.e. sports and the weather). The war of words waged between the fourth inning and still in batting practice, as well as whether or not we might currently be in the eye of the storm.

We at CPN would like to take a measure of where the industry thinks we are--a barometer or the season's standings, depending on your preference. To vote in our fast poll, click here and scroll down to the bottom of the screen. And weigh in with your thoughts here on our blog.

Comments

[Sean O'Shea]

It was striking to identify that 100% of respondees stated "early innings". I agree. What is tough for most observers and participants, alike, is understanding the "proportions" of the current crisis and the confluence of economic and political calibrations of policy intiatives against the backdrop of the 24 hour media cycle, literally "filling time' rather than informing or educating 'the public citizenry' for the challenges ahead.
The "attention deficit discorder" of many of our fellow citizens and our culture compounds this backdrop. While the events of the Bear Stearns/AIG/Merrill Lynch/Lehman Brothers debacles...........(shall I go on) are somewhat overwhelming and even mysterious for many of us; not to mention our new Trillion Dollar vocabulary, we are just beginning to get a handle on the 'massive conspiracy of interests' that allowed this last phase of the American Way of Life (as we have known it) to have a meltdown right before our collective eyes. Stunning.
So the road to our new collective reality has no real infrastructure in place. The Stimulus Plan needs its on infrastructure plan. Major historical (and comforting) American institutions are falling by the wayside. What will replace them?
The first stage of Recovery from any addiction, as I understand it, is admitting, "Houston, we have a problem". So, facing our issues squarely, as unpleasant as this process may be, is critical to any real movement forward. Times like these demand bold action, even if 'appearing impolitic' in the short term. Fine tuning around the edges has nor/will not work, even if effective, in masking the dimensions of the problems. We actually DO need an industrial policy to compete in this new global economy, those "Free market types who recoil from such an idea are "living in the '50's"....the 1850's.

A new sense of American purpose will be required. Early innings indeed.