AIA’s Architecture Billings Index Down Significantly

The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) dropped substantially in November to 42.8 after it reached its highest level since August 2008 with an October mark of 46.1, according to the AIA. Any score below 50 indicates a decline in demand for design services. The level of inquiries for new projects remained high and unchanged at 58.5.

 

“There continues to be a lot of uncertainty in the construction industry that likely will delay new projects in the near future,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Perhaps the President’s plan calling for loans for small business, funding for infrastructure projects, and rebates for homeowners making energy efficient improvements will help speed a recovery in the construction industry.”

 

Here’s the breakdown:

• Regional averages: South (46.4), Northeast (45.0),  Midwest (43.7), West (41.1)
• Sector index breakdown: institutional (47.0), multi-family residential (45.8), mixed practice (42.8), commercial / industrial (40.7),
• Project inquiries index: 58.5

As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to 12 month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending.

 

AIA’s Architecture Billings Index Shows Positive Signals

The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) for October reached its highest level since August 2008, according to the AIA. This came amidst a continued high level of inquiries for new projects. October’s ABI rating was 46.1, up significantly from 43.1 in September. And while any score below 50 still indicates a decline in demand for design services, the new projects inquiry score was 58.5, slightly down from 59.1 in September.

 

Comments from the AIA’s chief economist Kermit Baker, PhD., Hon. AIA were guardedly optimistic. “This news could prove to be an early signal towards a recovery for the design and construction industry,” he said. “On the other hand, because we continue to get reports of architecture firms struggling in a competitive marketplace with a continued decline in commercial property values, it is far too early to think we are out of the woods.”

 

Here’s the breakdown:

•       Regional averages: South (46.1), Northeast (44.3),  Midwest (43.0), West (42.8)

•       Sector index breakdown: institutional (48.7), multi-family residential (45.4), commercial / industrial (41.7), mixed practice (39.1)

•       Project inquiries index: 58.5

As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending.

 

The End of the Beginning: Farewell from Greenbuild

Submitted by Bill Valentine, Chairman, HOK:

Hi everybody. Here are some final reflections from Greenbuild as I wait to board the plane back to San Francisco.

My friend Marvin Malecha is the 2009 president of the AIA, but I know him best as the dean of the College of Design at North Carolina University, where, once upon a time, I went to school. As Marvin introduced one of this morning’s speakers, I was struck by his comment that working together worldwide will amplify all our efforts in the environmental movement. There’s a staggering amount of truth to this idea.

Before Al Gore spoke on Wednesday night, the USGBC’s Rick Fedrizzi got the crowd fired up about the environmental movement. People from all over the world — Germany, England, Italy, Brazil, India, South Africa and Australia — took turns standing on these tall podiums to talk about what they were doing to adopt USGBC standards and strategies while tailoring them to their countries. The dream is becoming reality! The USGBC is igniting a movement that stretches far beyond US borders.

I know our culture at HOK has been made incredibly rich by our people in Canada, the UK and Asia. Experiencing how they think and design has taught us so much. The same is true for the sustainable design movement. The diversity we’re seeing in the USGBC’s people and programs is making all our environmental efforts that much more effective.

There was a lot of discussion at Greenbuild about social ideas, and how sustainability can be affordable and can improve the lives of the common man and woman. These are completely different conversations than what some might expect to hear from architects. Almost universally, the focus here in Phoenix has been not on glitzy design, but on soulful, helpful ideas. I’m so thankful for that.

The speaker I saw today, Ulf Meyer from Kansas State University, made the connection between happiness and sustainability. Clearly it’s true that sustainability makes us happy. You’re breathing better air, you’re enjoying more natural light, you’re living in a world that’s less polluted — the list goes on. And because we aspire to make a sustainable world simpler and more affordable, the hope is that people will be able to spend more time and money doing what makes them happy.

It has been fantastic to see so many interesting speakers and friends. But one of my favorite experiences was when I got to sit down in a quiet section of the convention center floor with about 30 of our HOK people. Their average age is about 30, and they came to Greenbuild from our offices all over the U.S. and in Hong Kong, London and Toronto. We talked about what we were learning and where we need to go from here. I'm inspired by the notion that these passionate young people will be the ones driving us all into a sustainable future. There was so much enthusiasm and they shared so many good ideas. It was quite touching.

Phoenix was a wonderful place to hold the convention. The weather, people and facility all were great (So were the Arizona wines!). Overall, there was a nice, friendly vibe in the city. It was nice to see Phoenix using its downtown renaissance for good advantage.

I’d like to thank everyone I encountered in Phoenix and at Greenbuild for their hospitality. Thanks to Jennifer at Contract for this high-tech soapbox, and thanks to all you readers. This has been fun.

Now it’s time for us to take what we have learned and been inspired by at Greenbuild and keep pushing the sustainable movement forward. As I like to ask my colleagues: If we don’t, who will?

Take care,

Bill

Al Gore's Greenbuild Rock Concert

Submitted by Bill Valentine, HOK:

 

 
      

Chase Field had a rock concert-like feeling last night.

 

The evening started with a young man singing the Star-Spangled Banner. It was so touching and soulful that I was crying, as were many folks around me. It was a beautiful rendition and the song felt so emotional because of the significance of where we were and what we were doing. As I listened to the words, the feeling streamed through me that this sustainable movement is, in large measure, about being patriotic and improving the health and welfare of our country.

 

Thanks to Mary Ann Lazarus, my seats were just 60 feet away from the speakers. Al Gore was amazing, moving across the stage without notes or a teleprompter and laying it all out there. He was witty and compelling. He was so good that I didn't know whether to be thankful to be in his presence or ticked off because if he had done half as good a job in the 2000 presidential campaign, today's world would be in far better shape.

 

Gore pointed out that even if some people don't believe in global warming – and I still know a handful – they should support the environmental movement because our pursuit of foreign hydrocarbons is costing our country a staggering amount of money and causing huge political problems. Conserving resources and developing alternative energy options is one way to make America healthy.

 

I related to one of the quotes that Gore used from General Omar Bradley, who was an Army field commander in World War II. It was, “We have an obligation to steer by the stars and not by the lights of each passing ship.” That quote is quite meaningful to the environmental movement, because we need to create a broad vision and get on with it.

 

He also quoted an old African proverb that relates to the power of the U.S. Green Building Council. It was, "If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go to together." This was an important idea about what we can accomplish if we all work on this together.

 

Gore made a poignant point that we now have all the tools we need -- with plenty of new ones coming -- to solve our carbon problems. Now it's time to pursue new ways of getting it done. He zeroed in on being politically active and talking to our politicians about putting in place more laws that protect the environment, as we see in European countries.

 

One of my favorite quotes as it relates to what Gore was saying here is from Arthur Rubinstein, who said, and I'm paraphrasing: "You can play all the notes perfectly, but when does the music begin?" We have the notes we need, so now it's time to get on with playing the music. We need to fix our cities, change our education system to get more people interested in sustainability, improve our public transportation, and conserve our resources and land.

 

I'm staying at a smaller chain hotel that's several transit stops from the convention center. This morning I was sitting in the hotel lobby eating the complimentary breakfast and I couldn't help overhearing the conversation of a group of guys next to me. Last night they apparently were working as vendors at a booth in the stadium. They were talking about how they had to "sit through that Al Gore garbage before they got to hear Sheryl Crow." Ha!

 

Ciao until tomorrow,
Bill

PS: If you're here, stop by HOK's booth and give us your green a-ha!

Ken's First Blog from Greenbuild (and ever!)

Posted by Ken Wilson, Principal, Envision Design

I depart on a plane from National Airport at 10:30 am on Tuesday, November 10th. It was not surprising to see a number of familiar faces on the plane such as Raheem Cash, Director of GSA’s Environmental Division. I have been going to GreenBuild before it was GreenBuild (it used to be called the “USGBC Annual Meeting”) and it is something of an old home week for me. More so even than NeoCon. It is one of those places where I can’t walk 20 feet without running into someone I know. These are my people.

I am traveling with my wife Sally, who is Global Director of Environmental Strategies for CB Richard Ellis (and a tenant broker) along with my partner at our new environmental consulting firm, Eco-Impact, Penny Bonda. The cab ride from the airport to the center of downtown Phoenix is surprisingly cheap: $20 for four people (we pick up a friend of Penny’s). I am staying at the Sheraton, a brand new hotel a block from the Phoenix Convention Center. I am lucky to have this hotel because I hear the town is booked up with some people staying in hotels 10 miles away.  I am staying at this hotel only because of family connections.  Sally is the current Chairman of the Green Building Certification Institute who books her a room well in advance.  I am cool with that.  Connections are great when you have them.

Sally and I have lunch at the hotel and then check in for the conference.  Along the way we run into a number of old friends.  We then check out the reception CB is having at the Morton’s Steakhouse which is right below their office.  How appropriate that is.  They probably don’t even have to grill the steaks for the brokers….

Next we return to the convention center for the opening of the exhibition hall.  We run into Chris Smith, COO of USGBC.  You could not find a nicer guy.  We make plans to have dinner on Friday night.  The expo is vast.  Due to its size, the expo is located on two levels.  It is hard to identify the unique new products because there is so much stuff here.  It is mind boggling.  I am talking to Al Kabus at the Mohawk booth when the lights dim down as a signal to everyone that it the expo is closing down for the night.  Its like last call at a bar.  I head back to the hotel and catch up on some email before going to bed.  I have a bad case of what I call hors d'oeuvres stomach. Kind of full but kind of not.

One of my emails reminds me I have a proposal due the next day for a project in Kuala Lumpur. Darn.  I fill out the card for room service breakfast with the idea I will be spending the morning in my hotel room finishing this damn proposal.  Why does this always happen to me.

I am awake a 6:00 am and instead of going to the gym I am working on the proposal and eating a nice bacon and egg breakfast.  It sucks to have to write a proposal at the conference but I bet I am not the only one in this position.  It seems that writing proposals is all I do anymore.  I miss the first morning session but break away for the Executive Roundtable.  The panel is expertly moderated by Roger Platt, a newcomer to USGBC.  We hear from Ray Anderson, Bob Peck of GSA, Michael Crow - President of Arizona State University, Mark Nicholls of Bank of America, Arne Sorenson of Marriott, Mike Lafitte of CBRE and Tony Arnel - chair of the Green Building Council of Australia.

Bob Peck says the GSA will become a “proving ground” for green design and I believe him.  I know Bob and he is a no-nonsense guy.  He also says that in five years he won’t hire an architect that has to use a “green consultant”.  He believes green design must be integral to the practice of the firms he will hire.  Right on Bob!

Arne Sorenson says he wants to build his company to a point where people will say, “I will stay at a Marriott because they are a company that deserves my business.”  That is cool.

People ask, what is the shock that will get people to change their bad habits.  Tony Arnel says that in Australia, it is the 15-year drought.  He says that water use targets in Phoenix are 800 liters per person and in Australia it is 150 liters per person.  Wow….just think about that.

From the Executive Roundtable I go to the Leadership Luncheon, and special, invitation-only function that I am lucky to be invited to.  Ray Anderson gives an inspirational speech from the heart.  His is damn good at this.  He says everyone has one story to tell and that is their own story. He goes on to say that every story also begins with a question.  He says that the question every leader should ask: “is what we do worth doing?”  Ray is brilliant for putting life into perspective.  I get him to sign a copy of his new book “Confessions of a Radical Industrialist” after the luncheon.  Now I have to go back to the room to finish that damn proposal.  I miss the next to seminars, but the proposal gets done.  As I send it off I think there are probably a ton of firms that would do this project for a lot less.  It is a tough time to be in this business.

Next I go to a reception sponsored by the Forest Stewardship Council.  I received an Honorable Mention (second place) in an FSC award program for our design for the Generation Investment Management Office at One Bryant Park in New York City (Al Gore is CEO).  I receive our award and bolt to the opening plenary session where Rick Fedrizzi and Al Gore will speak at Chase Field (home of the Arizona Diamondbacks) followed by a Cheryl Crow Concert.  Rick is awesome.  Such enthusiasm!  I am totally sucked in.  I love this guy.  He makes me very proud to be part of this movement.  Then Al Gore comes on stage.  The crowd goes nuts (how the hell did this guy lose the election?).  He is brilliant.  I think how fortunate I am to have both of these guys as clients.  They are both incredible human beings and are so inspirational to others.  After the speech I have the opportunity to visit the USGBC VIP skybox where Al Gore is signing his latest book, “Our Choice”.  In addition to his book, I also get him to sign my FSC award for the design of his office (I am still lugging it around).  He seems genuinely happy to see me and I am honored.  I later have some drinks and chat with Vivian Loftness of Carnegie Mellon.  I’ve known Vivian for some time and she is amazing.  Again, I am feeling very lucky to be a part of all this and my bad attitude about the state of the profession starts to wane.  It’s not so bad after all and I feel our firm’s work is on the right side of things.  I run into Ray Anderson again and he tells me “you can look the world over and not find and x-environmentalist”.  How true.  I can go to bed happy tonight.

Greenbuild Day 1: Zero Carbon and Reusing Old Buildings

Submitted by Bill Valentine, HOK:

 

Thanks to everyone who is reading this blog! I was shocked by the number of people who came up to me today and said they read yesterday's post. I never thought I'd be Tweeted in my lifetime, I'll tell you that.

 

With more than 25,000 people attending Greenbuild, it's like a party in downtown Phoenix. The coffee shops are packed and the streets are full of demonstration Smart Cars and Priuses.

 

I stopped by HOK's booth and said hi to Mike and the gang. They're filming attendees' "Green A-Ha!" moments, so stop by booth #3442 if you want to be the next YouTube superstar or want to pick up some free salsa!

 

In walking through the expo hall and looking at the products, you get the strong impression that, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, we're at the "end of the beginning" for sustainable design. Incredibly exciting things are underway. And I'm happy to see a big push to make these products affordable so that they make economic sense.

 

I was particularly interested in one product I came across – a LED downlight that looks like a flat screen TV and is more than twice as efficient as a typical fluorescent ceiling light while putting off significantly less heat. This light was actually cool to the touch. I got so excited that I called one of our lighting designers – David Ziolkowski in our St. Louis studio — to talk about it. David said we're headed toward a time that, as the lighting quality improves, this type of low-energy, low-heat, high-efficiency light will be the standard.

 

I heard Rick Fedrizzi and Gail Vittori of the U.S. Green Building Council talk at lunch. It struck me that one reason the USGBC has been so unbelievably successful is that this organization is open to change and willing to morph. They're always seeking to learn and improve in order to take their efforts to the next level. Now they're starting to focus on what is beyond LEED Platinum, which soon will be the entry point instead of the pinnacle.

 

Speaking of what's next, there's a big buzz here about carbon neutral design. This is something we're very interested in and working on at HOK. Carbon neutral comes in a lot of manifestations. I went to a lunch meeting today in which my friend Ray Anderson spoke about what Interface is doing to move toward making zero impact on the earth. Ray told a sweet story about when President John F. Kennedy visited the Space Center in Florida sometime after NASA had achieved his stated goal of landing an American on the moon before the end of the 1960s. What President Kennedy noticed there, said Ray, was a humdrum attitude about their accomplishment. Why? Because, the folks at NASA told him, "That goal was too simple – we could have done much more!" That's the attitude we need to take when we focus on zero carbon: That's great, but what more can we do?

 

In another seminar, I heard that energy consumption in Europe, even with their very high standard of living, is half per capita of our consumption here in the U.S. Their buildings consume much less energy and they also aren't disposable – they're built to last.

 

That's the perfect segue into the other buzz from today, which had to do with retrofitting our buildings to consume less energy. This is much more important than what we're doing with new buildings because there are so many existing buildings that we can make a real dent in our energy consumption by making them more efficient. It seems to me that we haven't yet succeeded in getting our society excited about reusing our old buildings. But whether we're restoring a landmark or taking an existing structure down to the slabs, columns and foundations, this is incredibly important. It is a critical social, economic and cultural idea that we have to promote. So I was elated to see that push here, and I can tell you that it is a trend that will have a significant impact on the building industry. Is your firm ready for this? I'm going to make sure we are.

 

Tonight is Al Gore's speech and Sheryl Crow's performance at Chase Field, which is the downtown baseball stadium. Someone asked if I'll be there and I said, "Does a cat have a tail?"

 

That's the news from Lake Wobegon. See you tomorrow.

Is Less Really Less?

Here at Greenbuild in Phoenix and once again I’m inspired by the energy and enthusiasm of so many people and great companies committed to improving our environment.  I wish that I could visit all of the exhibits and explore all of the innovations.

 

Everyone is intent on meeting a growing public groundswell demanding less resource consumption and waste generation.  Good intentions, however, don’t always lead to desired results.  Is less really less?  That’s the important question we all need to keep front and center as we look at “green” products and processes.  The answer isn't always obvious and I'm not convinced the best solutions always come forward.

 

Simple, robust design often results in less energy consumption while complex materials separation and segregration required to incorporate recycle content, for example, often requires more energy.

 

What are some of the best examples you are discovering in the building industry of simple, robust product design incorporating closed loop recycle content?  Let’s share some observations.  I'm always searching for new ideas!

 

Glen Hussmann

CEO

Tandus

Phoenix Rising: Arriving at Greenbuild

Submitted by Bill Valentine, HOK:

First, I want to thank Jennifer Busch and Contract for allowing one of the more "mature" folks at Greenbuild to join you all as a guest blogger. I'll try my best to communicate the "vibe" here and maybe even throw in some facts.

This morning, as I was driving to the San Francisco airport to catch my flight to Phoenix, I had tears in my eyes listening to the memorial service for the victims of the tragic attack at Fort Hood. It was a poignant beginning to my conference experience, and I couldn't help thinking that the progress we are making at Greenbuild in helping Americans consume less "stuff" is one important way we can all make our world a better place.

I ran into several people I know on the plane. These days Greenbuild feels like a cross between a family reunion and a boisterous religious revival. There will be tears and cheers at Al Gore's keynote address tomorrow.

Instead of renting a car at the Phoenix airport, I took the shuttle to the new light rail system, which opened almost a year ago. The train took me past the convention center right to my hotel. It's an amazing system!

At the airport, I got to see our automated people mover project being constructed. This has officially been named PHX Sky Train. We have worked with Gannett Fleming on the design of this 1.7-mile-long APM for Stage I. It is designed for LEED certification and includes three elevated passenger stations. The trains actually will run right over one of the taxiways, which I don't believe has been done before at any airport in the world. When that's finished near the end of 2012, we'll be able to board the light rail trains right from the heart of the airport. Our clients here have been wonderful — they're committed to reducing vehicular traffic out of the airport. I'm excited about seeing my friend Danny Murphy, Phoenix Aviation Director, at the dinner HOK is hosting tomorrow night.

This city has long been known for its sprawl, but it's headed in the right direction environmentally. My impression of the local Phoenix government is that they follow the European model of viewing citizens as customers. So their focus is on making life easier and better for their citizen-customers, which is a wonderful way for a city to think.

It's 75 degrees, I'm running into all kinds of friends and I couldn't be more thrilled to be at Greenbuild. The idea of being part of this environmental movement at a time when so much is at stake in our world — and so much progress being made — is uplifting, to say the least.

Architectural Billings Index Shows Slight Improvement in September

The Architectural Billing Index (ABI), the American Institute of Architect's (AIA) leading economic indicator of nonresidential construction activity, showed a slight improvement in September. The ABI reflects the approximate nine to 12 month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending.  The AIA reported that the September ABI rating was 43.1, up slightly from 41.7 in August, which indicates a slower rate of decline in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry score, however, was 59.1, its highest level since September 2007. 

“The fact that inquires for new project are so high is an encouraging sign that we may be seeing new construction activity entering the design phase,” says AIA chief economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But that optimism has to be tempered by the fact that the marketplace is so competitive that firms are broadening their search for new projects, thereby inflating the number of inquiries that they are reporting. However, some larger stimulus-funded building activity should be coming online over the next several months, partially offsetting the steep decline in private commercial construction.” 

Key September ABI highlights:

• Regional averages: Northeast (47.2), Midwest (43.0), South (42.7), West (36.0)
• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (45.1), institutional (43.9), commercial / industrial (39.0), mixed practice (36.3),
• Project inquiries index: 59.1 

virtual gallery

One of my favorite product designers, Ayse Birsel of birsel+seck, has broken ground once again by utilizing a truly unique venue to showcase her work.

Birsel debuted 21 of her sketches on galerinternet, a new online art platform, curated by Birsel's friend Yilmaz Aysan. The site juxtaposes a film of the artist, together with their work, so it's almost like you're attending an actual gallery showing.

"I love the idea of being part of an online creative forum and letting people from all over the world have access," she says.

Apparently lots of other people loved the idea as well. Birsel says approximately 300 browsers logged on at the opening day of the exhibition alone. Her sketches will remain on display for the next few months.

There are currently three other artists on display at galerinternet and all work is up for sale. "It was kind of fun because I never really exhibited my drawings," Birsel explains. "It's not my core work so it's great to share something that is very intimate to me and personal and quite different from product design."